Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement of Ripple Cryptocurrency, Friday November 01, 2024.

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The condition of the Ripple cryptocurrency on its 4-hour chart is currently under Seller pressure, as seen by the EMA 50 & EMA 200 still intersecting the Death Cross, coupled with the appearance of the Bearish 123 pattern followed by several Ross Hooks (RH) and its price movements forming Higher-Low and Lower-Low coupled with the appearance of hidden deviations between Ripple's price movements and the MACD Histogram indicator (osMA 12,26,9), then confirm that Sellers are currently dominating Ripple on its 4-hour chart, but with the appearance of the Descending Broadening Wedge pattern, it is also worth being aware that in the near future there will be temporary strengthening where there is potential for Ripple to retrace up to the level of 0.5369, but as long as the strengthening does not penetrate and close above the level of 0.5594, Ripple will continue its weakening back to the level of 0.4908 as its main target and if momentum and volatility support it, 0.4799 will be the next target to be aimed of.

(Disclaimer)

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Overview of GBP/USD on October 31; ADP Impresses, but Non-Farm Payrolls Await

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The GBP/USD currency pair started to rise but quickly dropped as the U.S. ADP report—considered a precursor to Non-Farm Payrolls—was released. It's worth noting, however, that there is no consistent correlation between ADP and Non-Farm Payrolls. The ADP report might come in twice as strong as forecast, while Non-Farm Payrolls could be twice as weak, and the job creation figures often don't align. Ultimately, the non-farm data will shape the market and the Federal Reserve's perspectives on the labor market. Therefore, while the dollar received a boost yesterday, the actual tests lie ahead.

The British pound, meanwhile, took the opportunity to weaken further, which is reasonable. Unlike the euro, supported by positive GDP data, the pound had no such backstop. Once the U.S. reports were out, the market quickly resumed buying the dollar. The GBP/USD pair is currently holding near its local low, but if the upcoming U.S. data is strong, further declines in the pound could be imminent.

We believe that this downtrend will ultimately continue. The pound, like the euro, remains overbought and unjustifiably expensive. The Bank of England's prolonged hawkish stance is now weighing on the pound. The logic is simple: the longer the BoE delays easing, the faster and more aggressively it will likely need to cut rates in the future, which may be imminent. While the U.S. easing cycle is primarily factored into the market, the UK has yet to begin this process. Therefore, we believe the pound has substantial room to fall, with significant downside potential.

The state of the British economy, which has been struggling for at least the past two years, deserves particular attention. The downturn traces back to 2016 when the UK narrowly voted to leave the European Union. The British pound has been in a downtrend for 16 years. At present, we see no compelling reason to consider this trend complete.

We still anticipate a technical correction in the short term, but the market will likely respond to macroeconomic factors rather than technical ones for the rest of the week. Movements will thus depend on U.S. data. Once these reports are fully released, the market will predict the Fed's next steps in its meeting scheduled for next week. If rates are cut by 0.25%, it's unlikely to put significant pressure on the dollar. The U.S. currency could only come under pressure if the Fed begins to accelerate easing, which would require strong justification.

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The average volatility over the past five trading days was 68 pips, considered "moderate" for the pair. Thus, on Thursday, October 31, we expect movement within the 1.2914 to 1.3050 range. The higher linear regression channel is tilted upward, indicating a continued uptrend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory and formed several bullish divergences, suggesting a potential upward correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

  • S1 – 1.2970
  • S2 – 1.2939
  • S3 – 1.2909

Nearest Resistance Levels:

  • R1 – 1.3000
  • R2 – 1.3031
  • R3 – 1.3062

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair remains in a downtrend. We still do not consider long positions as we believe the factors supporting the pound have already been largely priced in. Long positions are feasible if trading purely on technicals, with targets at 1.3062 and 1.3092 if the price moves above the moving average. However, short positions are currently more relevant, with targets at 1.2909 and 1.2878, but will require confirmation with a move below the moving average. Due to a strong macroeconomic backdrop, mixed movements may occur toward the end of the trading week.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and current trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

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EUR/USD Analysis: Eurozone GDP, US GDP, German Inflation, and ADP Report

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The Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter, while most experts had forecasted a 0.2% increase. This is the strongest growth rate since early 2022 when the European economy grew by 0.8% in Q2 2022. Annually, GDP rose by 0.9% (forecast: 0.8%), the strongest growth rate since Q1 2023. The report shows that Spain's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q3, France by 0.4%, and Germany by 0.2%.

The stronger-than-expected growth in the Eurozone economy has provided substantial support to the euro.

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On the other side of the equation are US macroeconomic reports and... Donald Trump gained ground a week before the US presidential elections. Kamala Harris' lead over the Republican candidate has narrowed to just one percent. Harris currently has 44% voter support, while Trump has 43%. Her lead has been shrinking since late September, and the candidates are nearly tied. Growing concerns that a potential Trump victory may lead to increased tariffs and a renewed trade war with China have prevented EUR/USD buyers from capitalizing on their gains.

Contradictory US macroeconomic data have also put pressure on the pair. On one side, we have data showing US economic growth in Q3 (falling short of expectations), and on the other, a stronger-than-expected ADP report.

In Q3, the US GDP grew by 2.8%, compared to a forecast of 3.0%. Recall that the US economy grew 3.0% in Q2 and 1.4% in Q1 this year. This means that while the GDP didn't meet forecasts, it still reflects a strong performance. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE), which excludes energy and food prices, remained in the green, declining to 2.2% year-over-year, against an expected drop to 2.0%.

The US GDP report can be interpreted positively and negatively for the dollar (in my view, the release favors the dollar). However, the ADP report leaves no such room for doubt. Here, dollar bulls are clear winners. Most experts had anticipated that the ADP release, which often serves as an indicator before the official labor data, would disappoint EUR/USD sellers. The forecast was indeed weak—only 110,000 new jobs. However, ADP reported a 230,000 job increase, signaling that Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls could also land in the green, giving the dollar strong support. Nonfarm Payrolls are projected to increase by 111,000 in the non-farm sector for October. If the official release exceeds 200,000, we may see another dollar rally. The latest ADP report has heightened the likelihood of this scenario.

Interestingly, EUR/USD buyers reacted little to the stronger-than-expected Eurozone GDP and German inflation data. For instance, Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.0% year-over-year. The harmonized index accelerated to 2.4% after two months of decline. German inflation data often correlates with broader Eurozone figures, so expecting an uptick in Eurozone inflation is logical. Early projections suggest the overall Eurozone CPI should rise to 1.9% (from 1.7%), with the core index reaching 2.7%. This report is due on Thursday, October 31.

Thus, the EUR/USD pair is in limbo. On the buyers' side, there is growth in the Eurozone economy, accelerating German inflation and possible Eurozone inflation acceleration. On the sellers' side, there is relatively strong data on US economic growth and a robust ADP report.

In my view, the "golden card" in this scenario will be the US October labor market data, which could either pull the pair down to the 1.07 range or enable EUR/USD buyers to break through the 1.0880 resistance level (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart) and test the 1.09 range. There are no strong arguments—neither in favor of long positions (despite the ongoing correction) nor short positions. The fundamental picture is too contradictory to support a sustainable price movement in either direction.

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The Dollar Watches a Remake

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With less time remaining until the U.S. presidential election, macroeconomic data are fading into the background. A typical example was the GDP report for Eurozone countries. While growth in Ireland and Belgium in the third quarter didn't impress investors much, the recession in Latvia drew their attention. This fact catalyzed EUR/USD's return to a bearish trend. Sellers just needed an excuse!

Eurozone Countries' GDP Trends

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In 2016, Donald Trump's chances of winning the presidency were one in three; now they're two in three. His policies haven't changed much: the Republican still focuses on tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and immigration restrictions. But in 2024, he's more determined, and his plans are more ambitious, causing considerable concern.

According to BlackRock, global economies are experiencing the highest level of embedded inflation in decades. Under these conditions, aggressive rate cuts by central banks are unlikely. A key difference between Trump 2.0 and Trump 1.0 is the higher prices, as evident from the U.S. Treasury bond yields.

U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield Trends

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If Trump's ideas weren't as damaging to the global economy after 2016, they could be now. Large-scale fiscal stimulus and trade wars would drive up national debt and disrupt supply chains—a perfect setup for accelerating inflation. Theoretically, the Federal Reserve must keep the federal funds rate steady or resume monetary tightening.

How does Trump plan to address this? Will he again label Jerome Powell as "America's enemy number one"? Will he consider currency interventions like the 1985 Plaza Accord? Or aim to take control of the Fed? That approach would dangerously mirror last year's scenario in Turkey, where the president and the central bank he controlled fought high inflation by lowering rates—problems Turkey still hasn't resolved.

Turkey isn't the U.S., and the scales are vastly different. The global economy could face serious trouble if Washington follows Ankara's path. Thus, who occupies the White House matters, but so does which party controls Congress. A "red wave" would allow Trump to reshape international trade, but if the Democrats hold legislative power, Trump trade supporters may start cashing in their gains.

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HSBC notes that market movements before and after the election could drastically differ, with investors closely watching fiscal policy and import tariffs.

Technically, on the EUR/USD daily chart, the bulls' inability to realize the 1-2-3 reversal pattern shows their weakness. The bears have regained the initiative, and targets for previously formed shorts at 1.071 and 1.060 are getting closer.

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The Yen Gets a Wild Card

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Nothing lasts forever. After a decade and a half of dominance in Japan's political arena, the Liberal Democratic Party has lost its majority in the House of Representatives. It and its ally, Komeito, must bring new members into their coalition. Political uncertainty and increasing fiscal stimulus risks are pushing USD/JPY higher to the point where the government has had to resort to verbal interventions.

According to Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato, authorities monitor Forex developments with heightened vigilance. Previously, such statements have foreshadowed currency interventions, which have cost Tokyo over $100 billion in 2024 alone. However, speculators are more concerned about the Bank of Japan's limited options. Ahead of parliamentary elections, hedge funds have turned bearish on the yen for the first time since early October.

Speculative Position Dynamics on the Yen

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Bloomberg experts had anticipated signals from Kazuo Ueda about continuing the monetary policy normalization cycle in December or January. However, political uncertainty will likely render the October Governing Council meeting a formality. It's doubtful that the BOJ will discuss a near-term rate hike. If investors do not receive hints, USD/JPY's rally may continue.

Yet, the yen's weakness against the U.S. dollar doesn't mean it's lost ground against other major currencies. According to Vanguard research, the yen performs well as a safe-haven asset during U.S. presidential elections. Japan's $20 billion current account surplus, high liquidity, and relatively low inflation reflect the currency's reliability.

Global Currencies' Response to U.S. Elections

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Thus, it's too early to discount USD/JPY bears. They still have some advantages, and if the U.S. dollar weakens, the pair's rally could quickly reverse into a sharp decline.

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There's also a reason for this: Reuters experts predict a slowdown in U.S. nonfarm payrolls growth for October from 254,000 to 125,000. Hurricanes and strikes could push the actual figure below 100,000. Should this happen, markets may revisit the possibility of a 50 basis point federal funds rate cut in December. This would be bad news for the U.S. dollar and great news for its competitors, including the yen.

Technically, on the USD/JPY daily chart, the pair has approached the 161.8% target according to the AB=CD harmonic trading pattern. This forms a convergence zone between 153.85 and 154.20 with pivot levels. A reversal would justify profit-taking on long positions and a shift to short positions.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on October 29, 2024

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Yesterday, the Australian dollar couldn't rally like European currencies due to a sharp drop in commodity prices (oil -1.18%). Investors were also unsettled by the rise to power of the Liberal National Party in Queensland (D. Crisafulli, with elections held over the weekend), which, through its policies, downplays official inflation by excluding certain compensations for gas usage and other utilities. As a result, investors believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia may begin lowering rates sooner.

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The Australian dollar nearly reached its target support at 0.6570. As the Marlin oscillator begins to turn upward, the price may rebound from this level into a correction. The fact that the price hasn't broken below the 0.6570 support makes rising to the first level at 0.6640 easier.

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On the four-hour chart, the price and oscillator have formed a convergence. The nearest signal resistance, a break of which would signal the price's determination and readiness to continue upward toward 0.6640, is the MACD line around the 0.6603 mark.

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Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on October 29: The Euro Sees No Reason to Correct

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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

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The EUR/USD currency pair attempted an upward correction on Monday but failed again. Looking closely at the illustration above, you can see that despite efforts over the past five days to move upward, each new high is lower than the previous one. This means that there is currently no corrective movement. We warned that breaking the trendline does not guarantee the start of a correction and could be a false breakout. The trendline has recently been very close to the price, so almost any upward move could break it. If not for the significant data scheduled for release in the Eurozone and the U.S. this week, we would have said that the euro would continue falling without any correction.

As mentioned before, the euro is highly overbought and overvalued and will likely continue declining in the medium term. The minimum target is 1.0435. Reaching this target would mean that the price on the weekly time frame has reached the lower boundary of the horizontal channel. The overall trend is still downward. The market has been correcting the pair upward for two years due to the Federal Reserve's monetary easing. Even without external factors, restoring a fair EUR/USD exchange rate is necessary. Therefore, we expect a decline in the euro under almost any scenario.

Only one trading signal was generated in the 5-minute time frame yesterday, but Monday's volatility was very weak, and there was no significant fundamental or macroeconomic data. After consolidating above the critical line, traders could open long positions, but they likely saw no gain or loss, as the price did not move significantly upwards nor fall below the Kijun-sen line by the end of the day. This week, the pair's fate will largely depend on macroeconomic releases.

COT Report Analysis

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The latest COT report, dated October 22, shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has remained bullish for a long time, and the bears' recent attempt to gain dominance failed. However, last week saw a sharp increase in the number of short positions opened by professional traders, and the net position became negative for the first time in a while, indicating that the euro is now sold more frequently than bought.

We still see no fundamental reasons for euro strength, and technical analysis suggests that the price is in a consolidation zone – essentially flat. The weekly time frame shows that since December 2022, the pair has been trading between levels 1.0448 and 1.1274, extending from a seven-month flat phase into an 18-month phase. Thus, a further decline remains more likely.

The red and blue lines have crossed and reversed their relative positions. During the last report week, the number of longs in the non-commercial group decreased by 16,200, while shorts increased by 29,500, causing the net position to drop by 45,700. The euro still has strong downward potential.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

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On the hourly time frame, the pair continues to trend downward, which may mark the beginning of a new prolonged downtrend. There's little reason to discuss fundamental or macroeconomic reasons for a new dollar decline – they do not exist. In the medium term, we anticipate nothing but further euro depreciation. While a short-term correction is possible, the market currently shows little interest in buying euros, and there are insufficient technical signals to expect an upward move.

For October 29, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0843, 1.0889, 1.0935, 1.1006, 1.1092, and 1.1147, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.0873) and Kijun-sen (1.0801) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move throughout the day, which should be considered when identifying trading signals. Remember to set a Stop Loss to break even if the price moves 15 pips in the intended direction to protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Tuesday, no significant events are scheduled in the Eurozone, while in the U.S., the JOLTs report on job openings will be released. This is a medium-importance report but could be a starting point for price movement this week.

Chart Explanations:

Support and resistance levels: thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour to the 1-hour timeframe. These are strong lines.

Extreme levels: thin red lines where the price previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines: Trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts: The net position size for each category of traders.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on October 28, 2024

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The USD/JPY pair enthusiastically responded to the risky play on Japan's stock market (Nikkei 225 rose by 1.86% this morning) following the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's "near failure" in Saturday's election. The question of Japan's next prime minister remains open until coalition agreements are finalized.

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The pair began the day with a gap up, hitting resistance at 153.60. A consolidation above this level could fuel further growth towards 156.79, with a potential reversal afterward to close today's gap. However, if a significant breakout does not occur—as early signs suggest—the price may reverse from the current levels to close the gap, serving as a "clean-up" before the U.S. elections. The Marlin oscillator moves sideways, maintaining a neutral stance but with a possible upward bias.

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On the H4 chart, Marlin's signal line surged sharply after three reversals from the zero line. However, this swift ascent has resulted in the formation of convergence. Should the price consolidate below 153.60, it would signal an intent to close the gap, potentially bringing the pair down to 151.80, the support level near the MACD line.

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How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on October 28? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Friday's Trade Analysis:

1H Chart of EUR/USD Pair

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The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower again on Friday. The saying goes, "The music didn't play for long." The euro rose for a mere day and a half before turning downward again. On Friday, there were no significant data releases in the Eurozone, but earlier in the week, Christine Lagarde's remarks set the tone for the euro's sustained decline. However, we believe the euro should be falling regardless of Lagarde's influence, as the market has already priced in the Federal Reserve's monetary easing, and now it's time to factor in the European Central Bank's monetary easing, which is unfolding faster than the market expected.

Additionally, the ECB rate may even be lowered below the "neutral level," as several central bank representatives suggested. As we can see, there are plenty of reasons for the euro's decline, especially considering it has been rising for two years. Even crossing the trendline has yet to lead to a correction. As before, we continue to support the pair's decline, as any correction will merely present a good opportunity for fresh sales.

5M Chart of EUR/USD Pair

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No trading signals were generated on Friday in the 5-minute time frame. The pair barely reached the resistance area of 1.0845-1.0851 before falling to the 1.0792-1.0804 area. Entering buys or sells at the end of the trading day and week did not make sense.

How to Trade on Monday:

In the hourly time frame, the EUR/USD pair may start to correct after a month of decline. At the very least, some grounds exist for the euro to rise. We believe the pair could begin an upward correction, though it is unlikely to be strong and would require news supporting the euro. In the medium term, we still expect further decline.

On Monday, novice traders may trade from the 1.0792-1.0804 area again. If there's a breakout below, it would be an excellent opportunity for new sales. However, the trendline has been breached, so at least one more upward correction is possible.

In the 5-minute time frame, consider trading at levels 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0845-1.0851, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940-1.0951, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, and 1.1132-1.1140. On Monday, no significant events are scheduled in either the Eurozone or the U.S., so volatility may again be low, and the euro may attempt at least one more round of correction.

Basic Trading System Rules:

  1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (whether a bounce or breakthrough of a level). The quicker the formation, the stronger the signal.
  2. If two or more trades have been made near a level due to false signals, any further signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. In a flat market, a pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading occurs between the start of the European and middle of the US sessions, after which all trades should be manually closed.
  5. On the hourly time frame, it's recommended to trade MACD indicator signals only when there is good volatility and a trendline or trend channel confirms a trend.
  6. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips apart), they should be treated as support or resistance areas.
  7. After the price moves 15 pips in the intended direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.

Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.

Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com #

What to Watch on October 28? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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There are no scheduled macroeconomic events for Monday in the UK, Germany, the EU, or the U.S. It's unlikely we'll see significant currency market movements. The euro recently broke through the trendline but quickly fell back down, so it's possible that its decline could continue without a correction. Although a classic three-wave correction would make sense, the pair has declined for a month. If we see a correction, it would likely need to be stronger than 100 pips. As for the pound, there are no technical reasons for expecting growth since the price remains below the trendline.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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There's nothing notable in Monday's fundamental events. No major speeches are scheduled, although there have been enough statements from European Central Bank and Federal Reserve representatives over the past week. Even Andrew Bailey spoke twice, although he didn't share anything impactful for the markets. We now have a clearer understanding that the Fed is unlikely to rush into lowering the key rate, while the ECB and Bank of England may accelerate easing measures, which is bearish for both the euro and the pound.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, the euro and the pound have a good chance of resuming their declines. A correction is also possible, but buying the euro and pound during an evident correction may not be wise. The correction might reach 50% or more, or it could barely make it to 23.6%. It's better to trade with the trend rather than trying to predict reversals based on a correction.

Basic Trading System Rules:

  1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (whether a bounce or breakthrough of a level). The quicker the formation, the stronger the signal.
  2. If two or more trades have been made near a level due to false signals, any further signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. In a flat market, a pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading occurs between the start of the European and middle of the US sessions, after which all trades should be manually closed.
  5. On the hourly time frame, it's recommended to trade MACD indicator signals only when there is good volatility and a trendline or trend channel confirms a trend.
  6. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips apart), they should be treated as support or resistance areas.
  7. After the price moves 15-20 pips in the intended direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.

Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.

Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com #