EUR / USD: where will the euro go with an eye on the ECB's position?

For this week, the attention of investors will be focused on the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will be held on Thursday.

According to a consensus forecast of analysts recently surveyed by Bloomberg, the regulator will again keep borrowing costs unchanged and may even correct interest rate signals, postponing the timeframe for its possible increase due to the deteriorating economic outlook for the eurozone.


It is assumed that at the next meeting of the ECB, the question of the resumption of long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) may also be brought up for discussion, although the decision to provide additional liquidity to banks will probably not be made yet.

"I think that the monetary policy is very far from normalizing monetary policy. The weakness of the eurozone economy, the decline in consumer inflation in the region speak more about the need to mitigate, rather than tighten, the ECB, "said by the economist at Cantor Fitzgerald, Alan McQuade.

Given the possible change in the mood of the ECB, Societe Generale Bank revised downward the forecast for the EUR / USD pair from 1.25 to 1.20 in 2019.

According to the representatives of Societe Generale, "Due to the sharp slowdown in economic growth in key economies of the eurozone, including Germany, France, and Italy, the regulator may postpone the rate increase, and in the summer is likely to resume the program of long-term lending to banks".

"Despite the fact that the euro is exhausted by political turmoil (from Brexit to populists in Italy), we expect that the single European currency will rise in price as the contradictions in the EU are resolved, although its growth will be slower than previously thought," they added.

Meanwhile, Stephen Jen, Executive Director of Eurizon SLJ Capital, believes that the euro against the dollar may fall to a level that was last observed in early 2017.

"By the end of this year, the euro risk falling against the dollar to $1.05 if economic stress from China spreads to Europe, which will not allow the ECB to begin in normalizing the monetary policy. In this case, the United States will retain a dominant position, which will affect the dynamics of the EUR / USD rate", said by the expert.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

No comments:

Post a Comment