In October 2025, Japan's core consumer price index (CPI)—which excludes fresh food but includes energy—increased by 3% year-on-year. This marks the highest rise in three months and aligns with market expectations. The index showed an upward trend for the second consecutive month, following a 2.7% increase in August and a 2.9% rise in September. The main driver behind this inflation was the increase in food costs, a result of poor harvests, particularly in rice, and elevated global grain prices. Additionally, the significantly weaker yen boosted import costs, further intensifying domestic inflation pressures. Core inflation persisted above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, providing policymakers with more leeway to consider raising interest rates. This data emerged as the market anticipates a much-discussed stimulus package from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration.
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