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Cocoa prices fell below $3,900 per tonne, the lowest level since October 2023, as the market weighed weak global demand against rising supplies. Softer buying interest has led to stockpiling among major producers, particularly Ivory Coast and Ghana. Recent data showed that cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports reached 1.263 million metric tons by February 8, starting from the beginning of the season on October 1, a decline of 4.5% compared with the same period a year earlier.
In late January, StoneX forecast a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 tonnes for the 2025/26 season and 267,000 tonnes for 2026/27. On the production side, farmers in Ivory Coast reported adequate soil moisture, with upcoming rains expected to further bolster the crop and support the production of high-quality beans. Nonetheless, they raised concerns that poor storage conditions were undermining bean quality, and some growers were reluctant to harvest ripe pods due to fears of not being paid.
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