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European natural gas futures climbed back above €31 per megawatt hour as traders refocused on geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for roughly 20% of global LNG shipments. Comments by Donald Trump suggesting that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program heightened fears of possible military escalation and disruption to tanker traffic through the area. Storage fundamentals added further support: EU gas inventories have fallen below 31%, down from 40.7% a year earlier, with levels in Germany at 20.7% and in France at 21.1%. Offsetting some of this bullish pressure, wind and solar generation in north-west Europe is expected to increase, curbing gas demand from the power sector. At the same time, LNG send-out remains robust, underpinned by heavy cargo arrivals projected into March.
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