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Gasoline futures have climbed above $2.70 per gallon, their highest level since April 2024, as the escalating conflict in the Middle East and President Trump’s uncompromising demand for Iran’s unconditional surrender signal that no near-term de-escalation is likely to relieve global supply pressures. The nearly 20% weekly surge is the strongest since 2022, driven by fears of potential production stoppages among Persian Gulf exporters and disruptions to critical shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to the physical tightness, EIA data show a third consecutive weekly draw of 1.7 million barrels in US gasoline inventories, while China has instructed major refiners to prioritize domestic supply. Although the US administration has issued waivers allowing India to continue purchasing Russian crude to help offset shortfalls, market attention remains fixed on the possibility of a shutdown of key maritime shipping corridors.
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