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The Canadian dollar weakened beyond 1.36 per US dollar as safe-haven demand for the greenback outweighed support from surging energy prices. Defiant rhetoric from Iran’s new Supreme Leader has heightened fears of a prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, driving WTI crude oil above $100 per barrel. Although record-high oil prices typically provide a tailwind for the loonie, the currency is now caught in a tug-of-war with a resurgent US dollar as global risk appetite deteriorates.
Domestic economic data have also turned mixed: the unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in February as an expanding labor force outpaced modest job gains. Despite these signs of softening, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at its March 18 meeting, as it seeks to counter 2.4% headline inflation and guard against potential new supply chain disruptions. This firm policy stance is intended to preserve a yield advantage over the Federal Reserve, even as the loonie remains vulnerable to the broader flight to safety.
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