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At its June 2026 meeting, Banxico left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50%, in line with market expectations. The central bank noted that economic activity is expected to rebound in the second quarter, although it emphasized that meaningful downside risks to growth persist.
Inflation continued to ease between April and mid-June: headline inflation declined from 4.45% to 3.55%, while core inflation moderated from 4.26% to 4.12%. Reflecting softer non-core price dynamics, Banxico revised down its headline inflation forecast for the second quarter, but slightly raised its core inflation projections through the end of 2026.
The bank maintained its outlook for headline inflation to converge to the 3% target in the second quarter of 2027. Nevertheless, policymakers judged that the balance of risks to inflation remains skewed to the upside, pointing to potential trade disruptions, heightened geopolitical tensions, persistent core inflation pressures, climate-related shocks, and possible depreciation of the peso.
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Banxico signaled that it is likely to keep the policy rate at its current level for the time being.
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