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Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Rupiah Slides to Historic Low Amid External Headwinds, Fiscal Concerns | Trading Alert

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The Indonesian rupiah slid to a new record low of about IDR 18,020 per US dollar on Thursday, remaining under pressure as the US dollar index hovered near a two-month high. Stronger-than-expected US labor market data reinforced expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, weighing further on the currency.

Domestic concerns intensified the rupiah’s decline, with investors increasingly cautious about Indonesia’s fiscal outlook and the risk of a potential sovereign rating downgrade. Capital outflows accelerated after eight Indonesian stocks were removed from the FTSE Russell index, amplifying existing index-related pressures linked to MSCI.

At the same time, higher oil and gas import costs narrowed the trade surplus in April, while foreign exchange reserves fell to their lowest level in nearly two years, reflecting more active intervention by Bank Indonesia. The depletion of reserves has sharpened worries over the strength of external buffers and rising credit risks, following outlook revisions by Fitch and Moody’s earlier this year.

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Overall, the rupiah has depreciated about 7.2% against the US dollar since the start of the year, placing it among the weakest-performing emerging-market currencies.


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