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UK 10-year gilt yields eased to 4.91%, remaining close to multi-year highs. The pullback came alongside a decline in oil prices and a cautious tone in markets, as investors awaited further progress on peace efforts in the Middle East. Israel and Lebanon reached a conditional ceasefire agreement, though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cautioned that additional strikes remained possible. At the same time, Iran claimed it had targeted a US command vessel in the Gulf of Oman, while the Republican-controlled House of Representatives voted to block US military action against Iran, in a rare challenge to President Donald Trump’s authority.
On the monetary policy front, markets are now pricing in nearly two Bank of England rate increases this year, with the first move widely anticipated in September. Policymakers face the difficult task of containing rising inflation while also responding to early signs that the labour market is beginning to cool.
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