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The annual inflation rate in the US is projected to rise to 4.2% in May 2026, its highest level since April 2023, up from 3.8% in April. This would mark the third consecutive monthly acceleration in headline inflation, driven primarily by higher gasoline prices following the energy shock associated with the conflict with Iran. Even so, the broader pass-through to overall consumer prices is expected to remain relatively contained.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices are forecast to increase by 0.5% in May, after a 0.6% gain in April. Gasoline prices are estimated to have climbed by about 9%, though the waning effect of a one-off adjustment to rent data should help to temper overall inflation.
Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, is expected to edge up to 2.9% year-on-year in May, a new high since September 2025, from 2.8% in April. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices are estimated to have risen by 0.3%, following a 0.4% increase in the prior month.
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