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The Mexican peso was broadly steady around 17.5 per USD in July, as generalized weakness in the US dollar was offset by uncertainty over the upcoming USMCA review. The greenback came under pressure after weaker‑than‑expected US nonfarm payrolls data for June lowered expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. In addition, oil prices returning to pre‑conflict levels helped ease concerns over energy‑driven inflation, reinforcing the view that the Fed could remain on hold through the end of the year.
At the same time, uncertainty surrounding negotiations to revise the USMCA continued to weigh on Mexico’s economic outlook and dampened the likelihood of future rate increases. Domestic data also bolstered the position of dovish members of Banxico. Mexico’s annual headline inflation fell more than anticipated to a ten‑month low of 3.55% in the first half of June, while core inflation also eased more than forecast, strengthening expectations of lower interest rates ahead.
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