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Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose to 3.18% on Thursday, nearing last week’s 15-year high above 3.2%, as the surge in oil prices strengthened expectations that the European Central Bank may raise interest rates again this year. Energy prices climbed amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, following reports that a drone struck a US-owned gas storage tanker at the Egyptian Mediterranean port of Damietta. At the same time, the Federal Reserve added to market uncertainty on Wednesday by leaving interest rates unchanged, even though three FOMC members dissented in favor of an increase, and Chair Kevin Warsh offered no guidance on the future policy trajectory. On the data front, stronger-than-expected GDP growth across major euro area economies, together with higher inflation readings in Germany and Spain, further reinforced expectations that the ECB could implement a second rate hike this year, potentially as early as September.
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