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Cotton prices hovered around 80 cents per pound, rebounding toward a one-week high as weather-related supply concerns outweighed an otherwise strong Brazilian production outlook. In India, weather remained a key focus: the monsoon delivered the country’s fifth-driest June on record, with rainfall nearly 40% below the long-term average. Because much of India’s farmland still depends on rain-fed irrigation, extended dry spells punctuated by intense downpours have raised concerns about disruptions to summer crop sowing. At the same time, as domestic prices move closer to the minimum support price, increased government procurement is reducing the volume of cotton available to private buyers, adding further upward pressure on prices. On the cost side, higher crude oil prices have enhanced cotton’s competitiveness relative to synthetic fibers by driving up polyester production costs. Even so, expectations of abundant global supply remain intact, as Brazil has reported record cotton exports in the 2024/25 season and projects a further 13% increase in output in 2025/26, limiting the scope for additional gains in cotton prices.
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