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The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fluctuated before closing slightly higher at 4.96% on Tuesday, as investors weighed developments in the Middle East, movements in oil prices, and remarks from Federal Reserve officials. In an address to the UN General Assembly, US President Trump defended his decision to join Israel in taking military action against Iran, while expressing confidence that the US would reach a deal with Iran shortly after the November midterm elections. He also noted that oil supply is currently higher than at any time since the outbreak of the conflict, and predicted that prices will plunge once the war ends. Oil prices traded mostly lower on Tuesday but recovered from their intraday lows. On the monetary policy front, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasized that the central bank cannot ignore persistent supply-side shocks, while St. Louis Fed President Musalem indicated that additional interest rate hikes may be required to return inflation to its target. Market pricing currently reflects expectations for at least one more rate increase this year.
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