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The yield on the UK 10-year gilt edged down toward 5.35% on Friday as the recent rally in energy prices paused ahead of a key US CPI release, which could strengthen expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. Nonetheless, UK yields remain close to 19-year highs, with the 30-year yield hovering near 6%, a level last seen in 1998. Investors also weighed stronger-than-expected UK GDP figures: month-on-month growth for July came in at 0.4%, surpassing forecasts, while growth over the three months to July held steady at 0.4%, matching the previous period. At the same time, Brent crude remained near a four-month high and UK natural gas prices stayed close to a 3.5-year peak, intensifying concerns about renewed inflationary pressures. Markets have almost fully priced in a Bank of England rate increase in November and expect three further hikes by mid-2027, even though Governor Bailey stressed on Tuesday that future policy moves will depend on economic and geopolitical conditions, rejecting the idea that a rate rise is simply inevitable.
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