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The yield on India’s 10-year government security eased to about 7.37%, pulling back from a three-year high. The decline tracked a fall in US Treasury yields, as safe-haven demand amid a selloff in technology stocks supported Indian government bonds. The US 10-year Treasury yield slipped to a three-week low of 5.11%, reversing its earlier climb to 5.33% following stronger-than-expected September inflation data.
Nonetheless, expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India and tighter domestic liquidity continued to underpin Indian yields. The RBI’s aggressive defence of the rupee has reinforced market expectations of accelerated monetary tightening, with a 50-basis-point increase in December increasingly priced in. Persistent inflation, Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel, and ongoing foreign capital outflows have intensified these concerns, while the RBI’s dollar sales risk draining banking-system liquidity and dampening demand for government securities.
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