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The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 5.2% on Tuesday as trading resumed after a market holiday, extending its pullback from 24-year highs amid a pause in the recent global bond selloff. Investors shifted their focus to key inflation releases this week that could shape the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The US consumer price index is due on Wednesday, followed by producer price data on Thursday. Futures markets currently imply about an 80% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged this month, while assigning nearly an 88% chance of a rate increase in December. Investors will also scrutinize existing home sales figures and comments from Fed officials Christopher Waller, Tom Barkin, and Susan Collins on Tuesday. At the same time, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are helping keep oil prices elevated, adding to inflationary pressures.
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