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The Swiss 10-year government bond yield hovered around 0.5%, close to a seven-week low, as a rebound in oil prices and stronger-than-expected inflation pushed yields higher. Headline inflation in Switzerland rose to 1.5% in October, its highest level in nearly three years, driven by a weaker franc and more expensive energy. Even so, energy carries a smaller weight in Switzerland’s inflation basket than in most other European economies.
Although inflation remains within the Swiss National Bank’s 0%–2% target band, it is edging nearer to the upper limit. The SNB left its policy rate unchanged at 0%, and Chair Schlegel indicated there was no immediate need to adjust monetary policy. Still, the recent rise in inflation has reinforced market expectations of a rate increase in early 2027. Most economists, however, continue to foresee the first hike only in late 2027, as core inflation was stable at 0.5%.
Elevated oil prices are also bolstering expectations of monetary tightening in other major economies, indirectly adding upward pressure on Swiss yields. Offsetting this, safe-haven demand for Swiss assets amid lingering uncertainty over Europe’s fiscal outlook is helping to anchor long-term Swiss bond yields.
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