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US producer prices are projected to increase 0.4% month-over-month in October 2026, slowing from the sharp 1.3% rise recorded in September. That September gain was the largest monthly increase since March 2022—immediately following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine—and the second-largest on record. The expected October moderation would suggest a cooling of producer-level inflation, driven largely by easing energy costs.
Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.3% month-over-month, down from 0.7% in September. On a year-over-year basis, however, headline producer inflation is expected to accelerate to 6.6%, the highest rate since November 2022, while core PPI inflation is projected to hold steady at 5%, its highest level since early 2023.
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