Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement

The pound / dollar currency pair for the last trading day showed extremely low volatility of 60 points, which resulted in a slight decrease. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that for the fourth day in a row, there is a slight decrease in volatility and the quote itself is gradually driving into the range of 1.3030 (1.3000) / 1.3120, which is quite understandable and that the investors have hidden. Information and news background rolls into hell on the background of ambiguous Brexit. Earlier in the reviews, we have already discussed the reprieve, which the European Union provided with grace, but now, returning home, Theresa May provided the report to the House of Commons on her journey.

Naturally, this kind of fierce steps were met by Laborites, who criticized Theresa May. Jeremy Corbin, the opposition leader, said: "All of this is happening three weeks after the Prime Minister told the House of Commons that she was ready to postpone Brexit, but no later than June 30. And the second postponement of the date for three weeks not only speaks of a diplomatic failure, but also becomes another step in the improper management of the whole Brexit process by the government. "

As expected from this postponement, we now return to our volatility, which is almost tirelessly decreasing almost a week. We are getting it all clear. Brexit is so confusing to all that the big players, and investors, are waiting for the groove to the certainty of what is happening.

The upcoming trading week in terms of events and news will be more modest relative to the past week. The main stream of news is expected from Tuesday, but also on Friday - both in the West and in Europe they celebrate the holiday "Good Friday". The most current data is displayed below.

Tuesday

United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Average wage with bonuses (Feb): Prev. 3.4% ---> Forecast 3.2%

United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits (Mar.): Prev. 27K

United States 16:15 MSK - Industrial Production (g / g): Prev. 3.6%

Wednesday

United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y / y) (Mar): Prev. 1.9% ---> Forecast 1.8%

16:00 MSK - Speech by the head of the Bank of England Carney

Thursday

United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar): Prev. 4.0% ---> Forecast 3.3%

United States 15:30 MSK - Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar): Prev. 2.2%

These are preliminary and subject to change.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- Buy positions are considered in case of a slowdown in the range of 1.3030 (1.3000). In the case of mining, the prospect is in the side of 1.3120. Main transactions will be considered only after a clear price fixing becomes higher than 1.3120.

- Positions for sale are in theory the same as for purchase. Works within range are with less volume. Major transactions are considered only after a clear fix below 1.3000.

Intraday and mid-term prospects are set to a descending interest.

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement

For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a high volatility of 130 points, as a result of having a downward impulse movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the one-day respite in volatility gave way to another surge, which was to be expected. What we have is testing the level of the cluster of 1.3200 (20), where the quotation felt resistance and rolled us back to the level of 1.3060. On the other hand, the information and news background yesterday was busy with understanding the earlier statement by the Head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, who noted that April 12 is the deadline for approval of the exit agreement by the House of Commons. If this does not happen by this time, then there will be no more short delay. In fact, this is one of the reasons for yesterday's decline in the pound. Since the news flow was empty, there were no statements from high-ranking officials either.

Today, the day began with a new drop of Brexit, President of the European Council Donald Tusk considers it possible to offer Britain a "flexible" 12-month delay in leaving the European Union. The idea of Tusk will be the subject of discussion at an emergency summit of EU leaders on April 10. It should be understood that the words of Tusk were built in such a way that it is not clear whether Britain is obliged to accept the existing agreement before April 12. At the same time, it is also worth considering that a weightier voice in the person of European Commission Head Jean-Claude Juncker, has already stated that there will not be a delay if the agreement is not accepted. Thus, draw your own conclusions.

In terms of the economic calendar, we have important statistics from the United States regarding Non Farm Payrolls data, where significant growth is expected from 20K to 180K. On this news, speculators are already predicting a dollar strengthening, which is what we expect.

The upcoming trading week expects to be intense both in terms of statistics and on the information background, where the fate of long-playing Brexit will be decided. Displayed below are the most relevant events of the week.

Monday

United States 17:00 MSK - Volume of industrial orders (m / m) (Feb): Prev. 0.1% ---> Forecast -0.5%

Tuesday

United States 17:00 MSK - Number of vacancies in the labor market JOLTS (Feb): Prev. 7.581M ---> Forecast 7.540M

Wednesday

United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - GDP (y / y): Prev. 1.4%

United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Production volume in the manufacturing industry (g / g) (Feb)

United States 15:30 MSK - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y / y) (Mar): Prev. 1.5% ---> Forecast 1.8%

United States 21:00 MSK - Publication of FOMC protocols

Meeting of the European Council, where there will be a discussion regarding Brekzit.

Thursday

United States 15:30 MSK - Producer Price Index (PPI) (y / y) (Mar): Prev. 1.9%

Friday

Brexit Key Day

These are preliminary and subject to change.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that after the impulse move, the quotation felt a temporary support in the region of 1.3060, where we saw a pullback against the background of overheating. It is likely to assume that the quotation on the general information and news background will try to turn around, where traders are looking for fixation below 1.3060 with the prospect of a move to 1.3000.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Purchase items are not currently being considered. Possible consideration will occur in the case of a slowdown in the region of 1.3000.

- Positions for sale, as written in the previous review, traders considered a point to enter 1.3150. This is a breakdown of the existing stagnation. Now, we already have a position, and the prospect remains in the direction of 1.3000. If we do not have deals, we will wait for a fixation lower than 1.3060.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there was an upward interest against the background of a rollback in the short term. Meanwhile, intraday and mid-term perspective shows a downward interest against the general background of the market.

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(April 5 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 53 points. It is likely to assume that against the background of Non Farm, and the general information background, volatility will remain at a high level.

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement

For the last trading day, the currency pair British pound/US dollar showed a high volatility of 163 points. As a result, we have a full breakdown of the previously formed cluster. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the range accumulation of 1.3170 / 1.3220 has declined and the recent rollback has literally gave strength to the sellers, regrouping trading positions and drawing as a result a pulsing speed to 1.3034. Meanwhile, information and the news background continues to develop into Brexit's history. In fact, yesterday, there were no rumors, statements or other factors that could put pressure on the British currency. However, judging by the schedule and a sharp decline, speculators and investors are preparing for the sad events, and this is a hard way out. Today, March 29, the very day where parliament must decide to withdraw from the EU without a deal or accept the agreement. To say what will be the result is extremely difficult, or rather, not possible. The only thing that will surely be is high volatility, which will surely interest speculators.

In terms of the economic calendar, there are data on UK GDP, where there is a slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.3%. Yet, all attention is paid exclusively to voting in the British Parliament, which is scheduled for 16:30 Moscow time today.

The upcoming trading week begins immediately with the new month, and the economic calendar is full with various statistics. The most interesting events are displayed below. At the same time, we do not forget about the long-playing Brexit, where, most likely, the information background will continue to delight the speculators.

Monday

United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Manufacturing Business Index (PMI) (Mar): Prev. 52.0 ---> Forecast 52.0

United States 15:30 MSK - Basic Retail Sales Index (MoM) (Feb): Prev. 0.9% ---> Forecast 0.3%

United States 15:30 MSK - Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): Prev. 0.2% ---> Forecast 0.3%

United States 17:00 MSK - Manufacturing PMI from ISM (Mar): Prev. 54.2 ---> Forecast 54.5

Tuesday

United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Index of business activity in the construction sector (Mar)

United States 15:30 MSK - Basic orders for durable goods (m / m) (Feb): Prev. -0.1% ---> Forecast 0.2%

Wednesday

United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - The index of business activity in the services sector (Mar)

United States 15:15 MSK - Change in the number of employed in the non-farm sector from ADP (Mar): Prev. 183K ---> Forecast 165K

United States 17:00 MSK - Non-Manufacturing PMI from ISM (Mar): Prev. 59.7 ---> Forecast 58.5

Friday

United States 15:30 MSK - Change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (Mar.): Prev. 20K ---> Forecast 175K

United States 17:00 MSK - Unemployment (mar): Prev. 3.8% ---> Forecast 3.8%

These are preliminary and subject to change.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that after the rally, the quotation reached the value of 1.3034, and this, after all, the limit of the range level is 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050), where the quotation felt support and slowed down. It is likely to assume that the quotation will closely approach the level of 1.3000, but then we will see later, depending on the decision of the British Parliament. If the agreement is encouraged, we will move upward in the direction of 1.3300, and possibly even higher. If Britain leaves the EU without a deal, we will go down, forgetting that below us is the level of 1.3000. While on the emotional and fears, we will head down. In turn, investors strongly recommend taking a waiting position, since there can be nowhere to jump. Speculators are in anticipation of the rally.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a steady downward interest on the general background of the market in the short, intraday and medium term prospects. It should be understood that with a strong information background indicators can simply jump arbitrarily.

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 29 was based on the the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 74 points with almost 100% probability. Today, we are waiting for the so-called mega-volatility due to the information background.

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement

For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed ultra-high volatility of 222 points, as a result of drawing out pulsed candles on the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we continue to observe the feast of speculators, where the quote in a matter of hours, has managed to accelerate from the accumulation of 1.3220 in the direction of the psychological level of 1.3000, after which it instantly forms a rollback on overheating. Naturally, this kind of turbulence was provoked against the information and news background, and now in order. We begin with a key event, the European Union agreed to postpone Brexit, and this is a "victory". Sarcasm, yes, this is it, the leaders of 27 EU countries agreed on a delay and a new release date on May 22, but there is a nuance. The British parliament must approve the deal, otherwise on April 12, Brexit will happen without a deal. Now, we understand why there was such a drain of the English currency, since the risk of a hard Brexit has grown up at times. At the same time, yesterday, there was a meeting of the Bank of England, where, naturally, the rate was left at the same level, 0.75%. What is more interesting is the statement made by the head of the regulator Mark Carney: "The forecast for the economy will continue to depend significantly on the nature and timing of leaving the EU. " Mark, in his speech, duplicated fears if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, since a sharp drop in pound sterling can create inflationary pressure in addition to a wide economic shock. Let me remind you that yesterday, the UK retail sales data also went out, where they waited for a decline from 4.2% to 3.3%. As a result, it received 4.0%, but since there was a strong negative information background, this positive news went nowhere.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we are waiting for statistics from the United States regarding sales in the secondary market, where growth is expected from 4.94M to 5.10M.

The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is rather calm compared to last week. At the same time, traders are waiting for another vote in the British Parliament regarding an agreement that will decide the fate of the postponement.

Tuesday

United States 15:30 MSK - Number of building permits issued (Feb): Prev. 1,345M ---> Forecast 1,320M

United States 15:30 MSK - The volume of construction of new homes (Feb): Prev. 1.230M ---> Forecast of 1.235M

Thursday

United States 15:30 MSK - GDP (q / q) (Q4): Prev. 2.6% ---> Forecast 2.6%

United States 17:00 MSK - The index of pending sales in the real estate market (m / m) (Feb): Prev. 4.6% ---> Forecast 0.4%

Friday

United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - GDP (q / q) (Q4): Prev. 1.3%

United States 17:00 MSK - Sales of new housing (Feb): Prev. 607K ---> 617K forecast

These are preliminary and subject to change.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a great pullback / correction after a recent rally, where the quote reached the value of 1.3150, after which the attenuation process started in the form of double-digit doji-type candles. It is likely to assume that the descending interest will continue in the medium term, but there are many reasons for this.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Traders considered buying positions at the moment of price approaching the psychological level of 1.3000. Now, I think, everyone has already fixed it. If we consider long positions, it is in the case of price fixing higher than 1.3180.

- Traders consider selling positions at a price lower than 1.3115.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is interest in the general market background in the short, intraday and medium term.

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 22 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 56 points. It is likely to assume that volatility will remain high due to ambiguity in the information background.

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com