By the end of the last trading week, the Euro / Dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 55 points, as a result of concentrating near the value of 1.1370. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quotation has formed a correctional movement and reached Fibo level of 38.2 and 23.6 in the area of the recent accumulation of 1.1370, where, as a result, Friday's stagnation formed. Informational and news background had statistics on inflation in February of the eurozone (prev.). There was an acceleration from 1.4% to 1.5%. However, on an annualized basis, we see a slowdown from 1.1% to 1.0%. At the same time, in the United States, this PMI came out of the ISM in February, where they waited for a decline from 56.6 to 55.5, and received it, right up to 54.2. Returning to the information background, we have the next bursts about Brexit. This time, the European skeptic conservatives represented by the European Research Group put forward to Teresa May the conditions under which they would support her at the ballot in parliament in order to approve the country's withdrawal from the EU. The conditions of euro skeptics are directed towards controversial issues regarding the so-called backstop in Northern Ireland. Lawmakers insist on a clearly formulated, legally enforced provision that would uniquely predetermine the text of the agreement.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the corrective movement continued its formation, overcoming the value of 1.1370 and the Fibo cluster of levels 38.2 and 23.6 on the way. It is likely to assume that in the range of values of 1.1330-1.1300, we will see a certain point of support, which will be reflected from an earlier cluster at the same time from the very level of 1.1300.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Consider buying positions in a region of 1.1330-1.1300.
- For sell positions, as discussed earlier , traders monitored price fixes below the value of 1.1370 and the Fibo Cluster 38.2 and 23.6 for placing pending orders. If we don't have any positions, then entry by current values is quite dangerous, since we are already at a possible point of support. If, however, they decided to move on to 1.1300, then it would be advisable to use a conservative deal volume.
Indicator Analysis
It's not a problem.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Monthly Quarter / Year.
(March 4 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 47 points. It is likely to assume that in case of continuation of the corrective course, the volatility of the day may reach the daily average. Otherwise, we will be fixated on the current values.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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