The most significant event of yesterday was the decision of the United States to terminate the permits for importing oil from Iran. This was done in order to reduce the export of Iranian oil to zero. This statement was made yesterday by a representative of the White House. After this news, oil prices rose sharply, as did the currencies of oil-producing countries, including the Canadian dollar and the Russian ruble.
Oil demand is also fuelled by the conflict in Libya, which produces more than 1.2 million barrels per day. Let me remind you that US sanctions also apply to Venezuela. Many experts predict an increase in the price of black gold in the area of $80 per barrel. The current price for the WTI brand is already $66, and the demand remains quite high.
More than six months ago, the United States allowed representatives of eight countries to continue to import oil from Iran for 1,800 days but on the condition that each of these countries take measures to reduce such purchases. Permits were valid until May 2. Given the fact that the list of countries has not been published, analysts were confident that China, India, and Turkey are among the main consumers of Iranian oil. The leadership of these countries expected to receive new concessions from the US to buy oil from Tehran, but this did not happen.
During yesterday's speech, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that Iran's influence declined as a result of pressure from the United States, and US oil sanctions cost Iran more than $10 billion.
As for the current technical picture of oil, it is obvious that the price will tend to the highs of October 26, 2018, in the area of 68 dollars per barrel. The breakthrough of this range will open a direct road to the levels of 70 and 73 US dollars.
Yesterday, the European currency managed to strengthen its position after the publication of a weak report on home sales in the secondary market of the USA, which declined in March of this year.
According to the National Association of Realtors, sales in the secondary housing market in March 2019 fell by 4.9% and amounted to 5.21 million homes per year. Economists had expected sales to drop by 3.8% to 5.30 million homes. Compared to the same period of the previous year, home sales fell by 5.4% in March.
Data on the growth of the index of national economic activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago did not support the dollar, despite the improvement in employment rates.
According to the report, the index rose to -0.15 points in March against -0.31 points in February. For March, the three-month moving average of the national activity index dropped to -0.24 points.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the return to the middle of the channel 1.1250 can form pressure on risky assets, which will lead to a decrease in the lower border area 1.1230. Its breakthrough will resume the downward trend in the area of lows 1.1200 and 1.1180. To maintain the upward correction, EURUSD buyers need to return and consolidate on the resistance of 1.1270, which opens a direct road to the area of the maximum of 1.1300.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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