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South Africa’s 10-year bond yield hovered around 9%, near its highest level since mid-October 2025, signaling subdued risk appetite amid persistent geopolitical tensions and increasingly hawkish guidance from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). The central bank left the repo rate unchanged at 6.75%, citing elevated global uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and its implications for inflation and growth. While inflation is now projected to be higher this year and next, growth forecasts were left unchanged. Governor Kganyago noted that the SARB’s projection model suggests interest rates are likely to remain on hold for an extended period, postponing the cuts that had been anticipated in January. Policymakers now foresee only one rate cut for the year, down from two previously expected, as they maintain a cautious stance in the face of global risks. They also evaluated two potential Iran conflict scenarios — a brief two-month episode and a more prolonged one-year scenario — with both pointing to the likelihood of higher interest rates.
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