Update: Japan Unexpectedly Posts Trade Surplus | Economic Update

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Japan’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to JPY 57.3 billion in February 2026 from JPY 559.2 billion a year earlier, as imports grew faster than exports. Even so, the result significantly outperformed market expectations of a JPY 483.2 billion deficit.

Exports increased 4.2% year-on-year to JPY 9,571.6 billion, a marked slowdown from the 16.8% jump recorded in January and the weakest pace since October, reflecting softer demand from both China and the United States.

Imports, meanwhile, surged 10.2% to JPY 9,514.3 billion. Although slightly below the consensus forecast of 11.5%, this represented a strong rebound from the 2.6% decline in January and the fastest import growth since July 2024. The upswing in imports was underpinned by solid domestic demand, supported by the large fiscal stimulus package rolled out by Tokyo in November.

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