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The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to 4.37% on Thursday as optimism for a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict faded, heightening fears of a prolonged energy shock that could push inflation higher. In a prime-time address, President Donald Trump said the war may be approaching an end but warned that the US would continue military operations against Iran for the next two to three weeks. Iran on Wednesday rejected Trump’s assertion that it had requested a ceasefire. At the same time, fresh data showed that March ADP private payrolls beat expectations, while February retail sales delivered stronger-than-forecast gains, highlighting the underlying strength of the US economy. Markets are now pricing in no interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the remainder of the year, even though the Fed’s own projections, updated last month, still signal one reduction.
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