The UK released downbeat CPI and strong retail sales reports which created indecisive mood in the market regarding further GBP gains. At the same time, USD has managed to sustain momentum against the pound recently.
It seems that the UK government has reached a deadlock in the Brexit issue which has a negative impact on the British economy. The UK is currently in the grip of a political impasse that shows no prospect of easing. Theresa May's government failed to strike a deal on Brexit, so the exit procedure was postponed untill October 2019.
Easter holidays have ended, so traders get back to work. Tomorrow the UK Public Sector Net Borrowing report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.8B from the previous figure of -0.7B. The lower the net borrowings, the better the economic conditions, so a decline can be a favorable sign. Moreover, on Friday the UK High Street Lending is expected to be positive with an increase to 38.7k from the previous figure of 35.3k. If the actual reading comes in line with expectations, GBP will extend gains.
As for the news from the United States, the GDP data will see the light this week. It is expected to be unchanged at 2.2% while the advance GDP Price Index is expected to decrease to 1.3% from the previous value of 1.8%. Ahead of this report USD is trading mixed but it is stronger against GBP. According to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasting model, the US economy expanded at 2.8% in annual terms in the first quarter based on the data that showed domestic retail sales grew at their strongest pace in March. It reflected a faster pace of growth than the official reading of 2.4%. Recently, the US Existing Home Sales report was published with a decrease to 5.21M from the previous figure of 5.48M. It affected the overall impulsive momentum of USD.
Today, the US New Home Sales report is going to be published. Analysts predicted a decline to 647k from the previous figure of 667k. Besides, the Richmond Manufacturing Index is expected to be unchanged at 10.
As of the current scenario, the pound sterling is trying to sustain the gains while the US dollar is facing downward risks with the pessimistic economic expectations. If the actual results fails to meet the forecast, it may lead to further correction of the pair. On the contrary, positive economic results are expected to provide support to USD.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently correcting in a range bound after the impulsive bearish pressure. The price is hovering between 1.2950 and 1.30 area from where it is expected to correct further and result in certain pullbacks before the price continues with the bearish trend. As the price remains below 1.3050 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further in the coming days.
