The tests of the levels I indicated did not happen in the first half of the day. The lack of reaction to the data on Japan resulted in the same calm during the European session. The US data will rock the market, and we will get suitable entry points in the afternoon. Figures are expected on changes in the volume of orders for durable goods, the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan. There will also be a speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller, but it is unlikely that it will somehow change market sentiment by the end of the week, so it is best to pay more attention to the data. Strong reports will increase the pair, while weak ones will lead to a fall. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when I reach the entry point of 157.13 (green line) to grow to 157.78 (thicker green line on the chart). In the area of 157.78, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). It is possible to count on the pair's growth today in continuation of the trend, but this requires strong data on the United States. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 156.92, when the MACD indicator will be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect an increase to the opposite levels of 157.13 and 157.78.
A sell signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the level of 156.92 (the red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target of sellers will be the 156.30 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful consolidation in the area of the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today for two consecutive price tests of 157.13, when the MACD indicator will be in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 156.92 and 156.30.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy a trading instrument;
The thick green line is the estimated price where you can place Take profit or fix profit yourself since further growth is unlikely above this level;
The thin red line is the entry price at which a trading instrument can be sold;
The thick red line is the estimated price where you can place Take profit or fix profit yourself since further decline is unlikely below this level;
The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders need to make decisions about entering the market very carefully. Before releasing important fundamental reports, staying out of the market is best to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during the news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You can lose the entire deposit quickly without placing stop orders, especially if you do not use money management but trade in large volumes.
Remember that a clear trading plan, following the example I presented above, is necessary for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decision-making based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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