WTI crude oil futures dropped by over 3.5% to reach $59.40 per barrel on Friday, marking the lowest level since May 8. This decline is attributed to diminishing tensions in the Middle East and the potential for a global supply surplus that is exerting downward pressure on the market. In a significant development, Israel has approved a framework allowing Hamas to release hostages in exchange for prisoners, advancing the peace process in Gaza—a key region responsible for about one-third of the world’s crude oil production. Simultaneously, market conditions are being influenced by the expected surplus due to increasing production levels from both OPEC+ members and non-members, as the organization recently raised production quotas in an effort to regain market share. Additionally, concerns have been reignited over a trade war, following President Donald Trump's threat of imposing a "massive increase" in tariffs on Chinese imports. Despite these pressures, prices found some support from U.S. sanctions targeting a crude-import terminal and a private Chinese refinery linked to Iranian oil trading. In retaliation, China has implemented port fees on American ships, which could lead to elevated freight costs.
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