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European natural gas futures have increased to over €36/MWh, marking a rise from the recent three-week low of €32.86 observed on February 3rd. This upward trend is propelled by forecasts predicting an impending cold wave in Europe and a constrained supply for alternative power generation. Meteorological forecasts indicate a fresh cold spell targeting northern and eastern European nations, which is likely to boost demand for gas-intensive heating. This has prompted gas traders to elevate shipments of North American LNG. Concurrently, wind energy production across northwest Europe has been underperforming, thereby augmenting reliance on gas for electricity generation.
Despite these dynamics, storage levels remain low, sustaining upward pressure on prices. The EU's gas inventories are approximately 39.2% full, a significant decline from about 52% at this time last year. The situation is notably critical in Germany, where storage is at 30.2%, in France at 29%, and in the Netherlands at 23.5%. Projections suggest that EU stock levels could dwindle to around 26% by the close of March, necessitating considerable replenishment throughout the summer to attain the 90% level before the next winter season.
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