Today, all the attention of the markets will be drawn to the publication of data on employment in the US, which may for some time revive the financial markets in the wake of high uncertainty in the trade negotiation process between the US and China in recent months, as well as the UK's exit from the EU that signals about the slowdown of the global economy clogged into narrow ranges.
According to the presented forecasts, it is expected that the US economy has received 175,000 new jobs in March against the value of 20,000 in February. The number of people employed in the private sector increased by 170,000 against 25,000 a month earlier. It is assumed that the unemployment rate will remain at the same level of 3.8%.
The data on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits showed their decrease to 202,000 against the forecast increase of 216,000 and the previous upward revised value of 212,000, which show that the situation on the labor market still remains above the average values. Therefore, it is likely that the values for non-farm employment presented today may be higher than the forecast. Against this background, the US dollar may receive local support, adding to all major currencies. But on the whole, the risks of weaker numbers are also present despite the possible positive numbers and the reason for this may already be a slowdown in the growth of the American economy, which after the 2008-09 crisis, there was a ten-year recovery and then growth reached a peak.
We believe that if it is dynamic, the estimated probable movement of the US dollar will be limited since the uncertainties listed at the beginning of the article do not allow the markets to clearly understand what should be expected. Thus, the dollar can actually grow up and fall.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair remains in a very narrow range of 1.1215-1.1245. If US employment data is strong, the pair may fall to 1.1175 and break the 1.1215 mark. Moreover, if they disappoint, the pair may rise to 1.1280 and above the level of 1.1245.
The AUD/USD pair gets support in the wake of hopes for resolving trade conflicts between the US and China on trade. It may receive additional impetus to growth on the wave of weak data from the US and continue to grow to 0.7145 and then to 0.7165. However, the pair may locally fall to 0.7090 if the data is higher than the forecast.
