USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for beginner traders on September 17 (U.S. session)

Analysis of trades and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The price tested 140.61 as the MACD indicator started to move downward from the zero line, confirming an optimal entry point to sell the dollar, continuing the prevailing downward trend in the market. The pair moved only 20 points before returning to the 140.61 level. Changes in retail sales, industrial production, manufacturing output, and the NAHB housing market index are factors that could support the dollar's rise today. However, for this to happen, U.S. data must significantly exceed economists' forecasts, which would prompt USD/JPY buying. However, strong growth against the trend seems unlikely. Otherwise, the pair's decline will continue. For the intraday strategy, I plan to act according to scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point at 140.91 is reached (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 141.44 (thicker green line on the chart). At 141.44, I will exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point movement lower. A rise in the pair today can be expected if U.S. data is strong. Note: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 140.57 twice when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward 140.91 and 141.44 is expected.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 140.57 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 140.04, where I will exit sell positions and immediately open buy positions, expecting a 20-25 point upward movement. Pressure will return to the pair if U.S. statistics disappoint. Note: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 140.91 twice when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward 140.57 and 140.04 is expected.

What's on the chart:

* Thin green line: The entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
* Thick green line: The estimated price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
* Thin red line: The entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
* Thick red line: The estimated price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
* MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as a guide.




Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make careful decisions when entering the market. It is best to avoid entering the market before major fundamental reports to prevent exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I have outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.Pentru mai multe detalii, va invitam sa vizitati stirea originala.

What to Pay Attention to on September 17? An Overview of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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What to Pay Attention to on September 17? An Overview of Fundamental Events for Beginners


Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:




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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: There aren't many macroeconomic events scheduled for Tuesday, but there will be a few. The problem is that the market currently doesn't need any reports to make trading decisions. There were no reports on Monday, yet both currency pairs showed significant growth. Therefore, we believe that today's reports won't have much impact on the market and may only trigger minor local reactions.The Eurozone will release economic sentiment indices from the ZEW Institute. There




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Overview of GBP/USD on September 17; Why Correct When You Don't Have To?

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The GBP/USD pair also surged on Monday. While the euro might have appreciated based on market expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's rate decision, the pound had even more reasons to rise. After all, the Bank of England's meeting is on Thursday, where it's unlikely that monetary policy will be eased. What better reason to buy the pound? Thus, the pound sterling is rising again, seemingly out of nowhere.

We want to remind you that the market can price in global events and processes in advance. "Buy on rumors, sell on facts." However, the second part of this rule seems to have stopped working lately. For instance, the BoE started lowering rates, and what happened? The pound sterling kept rising. The Fed will begin easing on September 18—tomorrow, in fact. Does anyone really believe that the dollar will start a prolonged rally on September 19?

We believe—or rather, we want to believe in this. Otherwise, the last remnants of logic will disappear. We'll be left with a scenario where the dollar falls under any circumstances, and the market invents new reasons to sell the US currency. For nine months straight, we've been listening to the "comedy" called the "American recession." The US economy posts stronger-than-expected growth every quarter, and this growth is measured in percentages, not tenths of a percent, like in Britain or the Eurozone. Yet somehow, everything is only bad in the US, while the "British and European economies are recovering." Last week, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that GDP forecasts had been revised downward (and they were already modest), but the euro continues to rise, as it has been. And along with it, so does the pound.

Thus, it doesn't matter what decision the BoE makes or how many members of the monetary committee vote for a rate cut. So, the pound might fall locally by 50 pips—what difference will that make? Even traders who believe the current movement is justified can again see its illogical nature. It's Monday, no news, data, or reports—and the pound is rising by 100 pips in the first 12 hours. If we look at the illustration below, we can see that the pair doesn't always cover 100 pips in a day. In the last 30 days, it managed to show volatility above 100 pips only seven times. But, of course, the pound's growth is logical and natural. This is probably due to "rising risk sentiment."

We expect only the end of this illogical rise because opening positions when you don't understand why the pair is moving in that direction is foolish. Of course, if any trader is trading based purely on technical analysis, then going long is precisely what's needed right now. By Friday, we will have a clearer understanding of what to expect from the US dollar. If it continues to fall as it did on Monday, expecting logic from the market now would be like expecting the Liechtenstein national team to win over the Brazilian team.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days is 74 pips, which is considered average for this pair. Therefore, on Tuesday, September 17, we expect movement within a range limited by the levels of 1.3127 and 1.3275. The upper linear regression channel is directed upwards, indicating that the upward trend remains intact. The CCI indicator has formed four bearish divergences, which suggest a substantial decline, yet we still don't see it.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3184
• S2 – 1.3153
• S3 – 1.3123

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3214
• R2 – 1.3245

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has taken the first step towards a downtrend, and we hope this won't be the only one. We are not considering long positions now, as we believe that the market has repeatedly factored in all the bullish factors for the British currency (which are not much). However, it is hard to deny that the pound could continue to rise. Therefore, if you're trading based solely on technical analysis, long positions with targets of 1.3245 and 1.3275 are possible. Short positions can be considered with targets at 1.2939 and 1.2878 if the price consolidates below the moving average. However, the market may still resume pricing in the future easing of the Fed's monetary policy. Caution is advised.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels: help determine the current trend. If both are pointed in the same direction, this indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings 20,0, smoothed): defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted.

Murray Levels: target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines): the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators.

CCI Indicator: Entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

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Overview of EUR/USD on September 17; See the dollar? Sell!

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The EUR/USD pair calmly continued its upward movement on Monday. Is it even worth mentioning that there were no significant macroeconomic or fundamental events yesterday? The dollar is simply falling again, and there is no need for any justification. Unless, of course, we count the market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Because only this factor currently determines how much the U.S. dollar will be worth tomorrow.

To briefly recap, at the beginning of August, market expectations for a 50-point easing of the Fed's monetary policy in September sharply increased. It's worth noting that not a single member of the Fed's monetary committee ever explicitly mentioned the possibility of a half-percentage-point rate cut. Yes, some hinted indirectly that this was possible, but no one ever said it outright. Moreover, no Fed official ever stated that rates would be lowered six times in 2024. The market came up with this scenario at the beginning of the year and has been trading on that expectation since. Now it's September, and the Fed may cut rates no more than three times by the end of the year. So, what should the market do, having spent the entire year selling the dollar? That's right! Expect three 50-point cuts all at once.

Let's go back to August. After another less-than-stellar NonFarm Payrolls report and rising unemployment, the market convinced itself that the US economy was in bad shape, and the Fed now needed to focus on the labor market rather than inflation. Naturally, this led to a new round of dollar sell-offs because "the Fed will definitely cut the rate by 0.5%." By mid-August, it became clear that the market had once again been too quick with its dovish expectations, but by early September, the expectations for aggressive easing once again dominated the market. In other words, the market swings back and forth on its own, changing its expectations and acting on them, while the Fed has yet to lower the key rate even once. And we have serious doubts that it will reduce the rate by 0.5% on Wednesday.

However, it doesn't matter to market participants how much the Fed will lower the rate. They are trading based on their expectations. Suppose the rate is reduced by 0.25%. So what? Then, we can expect two rounds of easing by 0.75% at the remaining two meetings. Does that sound unrealistic? It's no more unrealistic than three 0.5% or six 0.25% cuts. The major players solely focus on selling the US dollar, so they don't need any grounds or reasons for doing so. As a result, the dollar continues to fall despite the technical picture and the fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds and can't even properly correct. Well, we keep watching. The year 2024 might end up in textbooks to show novice traders how the price can completely ignore all factors and types of analysis.

The average volatility of EUR/USD over the past five trading days as of September 117 is 46 pips, which is considered "moderately low." We expect the pair to move between levels of 1.1079 and 1.1171 on Tuesday. The upper linear regression channel points upward, but the global downtrend persists. The CCI indicator entered the overbought area three times, signaling a potential shift to a downtrend and how the recent rise is illogical. However, for now, we only see a relatively mild correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1108
• S2 – 1.1047
• S3 – 1.0986

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1169
• R2 – 1.1230
• R3 – 1.1292

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair shows weak downward movement with frequent pullbacks. In previous reviews, we mentioned that we expect the euro to decline in the medium term, as any new upward movement would seem absurd. There is a possibility that the market has already priced in all future rate cuts by the Fed. If so, the dollar has no further reason to fall. Short positions can be considered as long as the price remains below the moving average, with targets at 1.0986 and 1.0925. U.S. macroeconomic data undermine the dollar, and the market is still reluctant to buy it.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels: help determine the current trend. If both are pointed in the same direction, this indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings 20,0, smoothed): defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted.

Murray Levels: target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines): the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators.

CCI Indicator: Entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com #

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on September 17; Oddly Enough, the Downward Trend Still Persists

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Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on September 17; Oddly Enough, the Downward Trend Still Persists


Analysis of GBP/USD 5M




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Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD pair showed a 100-pip increase on Monday without any informational support. The British currency rose by one cent, and that was it. By the end of the day, it was near the descending trendline, and it seems there won't be any issues breaking through this line. Both Ichimoku indicator lines have already been crossed. Ahead of the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meetings, it's clear which direction the market is




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Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on September 17; A Dismal Start to the Week for the Dollar

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Analysis of EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD pair found nothing better, more logical, or reasonable to do on Monday than to continue rising. The descending trendline was breached as if it never existed, and the Ichimoku indicator lines posed no significant obstacle to the price's upward movement. All of this happened against the backdrop of an empty macroeconomic and fundamental events calendar. Once again, all traders could see that the market didn't need any reason to sell the US dollar. Of course, one might say that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates will be lowered for the first time in a long while, is drawing near. There is no other option. However, the market has been pricing in a Fed rate cut since at least the beginning of 2024. How much longer will this be priced in?

The last barrier is the 1.1137 level, which the market has saved for last. It appears the market decided not to send the dollar into a knockdown on the first day of the week, opting instead to wait out of decorum for the actual Fed meeting. At the moment, it can't be said that the trend has shifted upward, but it cannot be called a downward trend. What the Fed's decision will be, how the market will react, what Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech will be like, and how much longer the market plans to price in the Fed's monetary easing are tough questions to answer right now.

Since yesterday's movement was one-sided, trading was quite pleasant. During the night, a buy signal was formed near the 1.1092 level, followed by the breach of the Senkou Span B line. After that, the 1.1137 level was tested, and the upward movement ended. Volatility wasn't extremely high, but traders could have made around 30 pips on this single trade.

COT report:

The latest COT report is dated September 10. The illustration above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has remained bullish for a long time. The bears' attempt to take over failed miserably. The net position of non-commercial traders (red line) declined in the second half of 2023 and early 2024, while commercial traders (blue line) increased. Currently, professional players are again increasing their long positions.

We also still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the strengthening of the euro. Technical analysis indicates that the price is in a consolidation phase—in other words, a flat. In the weekly time frame, it is clear that since December 2022, the pair has been trading between levels 1.0448 and 1.1274. In other words, we have moved from a seven-month flat into an 18-month one.

The red and blue lines are diverging at the moment, indicating that long positions on the euro are increasing. However, such changes cannot be a basis for long-term conclusions within a flat trend. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the non-commercial group decreased by 23,100, while the number of short positions fell by 4,500. Accordingly, the net position decreased by 18,600. Nevertheless, the euro still has the potential to fall.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

In the hourly time frame, the EUR/USD pair finally has a real chance to end the baseless upward trend, but these chances are quickly fading. The trendline and the Senkou Span B line have been broken. Now, the global uptrend is likely to resume. There's no point in discussing the fundamental and macroeconomic reasons for a new drop in the dollar — they don't exist. However, price movement depends solely on the market itself, and the market can trade in any direction, regardless of the news.

For September 17, we highlight the following levels: 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0843, 1.0889, 1.0935, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1137, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1085) and Kijun-sen line (1.1069). The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, so this should be considered when identifying trading signals. Remember to set a Stop Loss to break even if the price has moved in the intended direction by 15 pips. This will protect you against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Tuesday, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index will be published in the Eurozone, and the US will release reports on industrial production and retail sales. These reports might provoke a reaction of about 20 pips but will not affect the overall market sentiment, which will focus solely on selling the US dollar.

Explanation of illustrations:

Support and resistance levels: Thick red lines near which the trend may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines: These Ichimoku indicator lines, transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly chart, are strong lines.

Extreme levels: Thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. These provide trading signals.

Yellow lines: Trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts: The net position size for each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com #

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on September 16 (U.S. Session)

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3127 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was already significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. As a result, I chose not to buy the pound and remained out of the market, which caused me to miss the upward movement seen in the first half of the day. We have only the U.S. Empire Manufacturing Index report ahead, which could help pound buyers if the data is weak. Therefore, I expect the continuation of the upward trend, as demand for the pound is currently strong. As for my intraday strategy, I plan to follow scenario No. 1 and scenario No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3206 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.3231 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3231, I will exit my long positions and open short positions, aiming for a 30-35 point movement in the opposite direction from the level. A potential increase in the pound can be expected within the prevailing uptrend, especially if U.S. data is weak. It's important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise before buying.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the 1.3177 price level is tested twice consecutively and the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and prompt an upward reversal. Growth toward the resistance levels at 1.3206 and 1.3231 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price reaches and updates the 1.3177 level (red line on the chart), which is likely to lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3151 level, where I will exit my short positions and immediately open long positions, aiming for a 20-25 point movement in the opposite direction. Sellers are likely to emerge in response to strong U.S. data. It's important to ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall before selling.

Scenario №2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the 1.3206 price level is tested twice consecutively and the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the support levels of 1.3177 and 1.3151 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

* Thin green line – the entry price where the currency pair can be bought.
* Thick green line – the suggested price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be manually fixed, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
* Thin red line – the entry price where the currency pair can be sold.
* Thick red line – the suggested price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be manually fixed, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
* MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.




Important: Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.Pentru mai multe detalii, va invitam sa vizitati stirea originala.

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 16, 2024

This morning, the price attempts to repeat and consolidate Friday's move by breaking above the resistance at 1.3141. Success would allow the price to target the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.3245, provided it can overcome the intermediate level at 1.3220 along the way.

The Marlin oscillator has settled in the positive area, indicating favorable conditions for growth. However, one crucial factor is missing—time—since the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England's decision on Thursday.

On the four-hour chart, the price is struggling against the resistance of the MACD line and the level of 1.3141. A consolidation above this level would give the bulls some optimism, but reaching 1.3220 is far from certain. A drop below Friday's low of 1.3113 would open the target at 1.3080.

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EUR/USD: Ahead Lies the Most Important Week of the Month

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The upcoming week promises to be volatile. The key events unfolding in the coming days will continue to resonate with currency market traders for a long time. Please take note of the EUR/USD pair's dynamics: over the past two weeks, it has been fluctuating within the 1.1000 range yet has been unable to determine a decisive movement. Buyers have been attempting to reach the 1.1100 target, while sellers have tried to approach the 1.0900 zone, but both efforts have been in vain.

The "shadow of the Federal Reserve" looms over market participants, forcing them to be extremely cautious. The market is still tormented by doubts about the pace at which the U.S. central bank will ease its monetary policy. The suspense will be resolved in just a few days—on September 18—and the compressed spring of expectations will finally unravel. The only question is: in favor of EUR/USD buyers or sellers?

Let's step back from the intraday and even weekly price fluctuations and look at the monthly EUR/USD chart. We can see that the pair has been showing bullish momentum for the third consecutive month. It's not as though the buyers have moved steadily upward—significant price pullbacks have accompanied this upward trend. In July, the bulls entered the 1.0900 range but finished the month at 1.0826. The August high was recorded at 1.1202, but the month closed at 1.1047. The high for the current month is marked at 1.1152, though now we are within the 1.1000 range.

The upcoming week will be decisive for EUR/USD. As in previous months, the pair will pull back only to climb upward again, or it will resume its upward trend without hesitation. The Fed will resolve this dilemma. All other fundamental factors will play a secondary role for EUR/USD.

Over the past five weeks, market expectations regarding the Fed's next moves have fluctuated significantly. After the release of July's Nonfarm Payrolls, a "Black Monday" occurred when global stock markets crashed. At the height of this crisis, the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut was assessed at 95%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Then, emotions cooled down, and the chances of a 50-point scenario decreased. Following the release of August's Nonfarm Payrolls, which were not as disastrous as July's, the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut dropped to 18%.

But ahead of the Fed's September meeting, the situation changed again. Firstly, the August reports on CPI and PPI growth reflected a further slowdown in overall inflation. Core inflation has stalled (as has the core PCE index, which has been coming out at the same level for three consecutive months), but it is not accelerating.

Secondly, during the "quiet period," several former Fed members, who are not bound by the rule of mandatory silence, spoke out. Esther George and William Dudley urged their former colleagues to approach monetary policy easing aggressively. Moreover, influential publications such as the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal, citing their sources, reported that the Fed is still wavering between a "big or small step." Specifically, the WSJ quoted a former senior adviser to the Fed chair, Jon Faust, who said the decision to cut rates by 50 basis points "remains a subject of debate."

These verbal signals have balanced the scales. According to data from CME FedWatch, the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut currently stands at 50%.

In other words, the odds are now viewed as 50/50.

What does this mean? This means that any decision by the Fed will trigger substantial volatility for the EUR/USD pair (as well as other dollar pairs).

In general, there are three possible scenarios. According to the first scenario, the Fed lowers the rate by 25 bps and delivers cautious rhetoric, indicating that future actions will depend on the situation, with no predetermined trajectory for rate cuts. Let's call this the "moderately hawkish" scenario. Its implementation would support the U.S. dollar, and the EUR/USD pair would likely drop into the 1.09 range, with the potential to reach the support level at 1.0890.

The second scenario involves a 25-basis-point rate cut with the announcement of similar decisions in November and December—essentially, two more 25-point cuts within 2024. This "moderately dovish" scenario would pressure the greenback (in this case, the EUR/USD pair would return to the 1.11 range).

And finally, the third scenario—the "ultra-dovish" one. This envisions a 50 bps cut and the announcement of further rate cuts at one of the upcoming meetings. In this case, the EUR/USD pair would rise and likely settle into the 1.12 range.

Thus, the fate of the EUR/USD pair lies in the hands of the Fed. All other fundamental factors will play a secondary (supporting) role.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com #

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on September 16? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analyzing Friday's Trades:



GBP/USD on 1H Chart



The GBP/USD pair also traded in a low-volatility flat on Friday. There was very little macroeconomic data. We can only highlight the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the U.S., which came in slightly stronger than expected. However, this report did not bring big dividends to the dollar. Meanwhile, the British pound rose on Thursday when even less important data were released. The market decided that the dovish European Central Bank meeting was a reason to buy the euro and the pound. All the pair's movements continue to be based on market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's rates. Neither macroeconomic data nor fundamental events seem to influence these expectations.

As with the euro, the dollar still has decent prospects below the trendline, but the recent downward movement has been so uncertain that it is difficult to view it as the start of a long-term downtrend.

GBP/USD on 5M Chart



In the 5-minute time frame on Friday, the price bounced three times from the 1.3145 level, which should be considered in conjunction with the 1.3167 level. The price failed to reach the nearest target in all three cases, located 38 pips lower. The day's volatility was just 43 pips. There was no desire to trade among market participants on Friday. Novice traders could have opened short positions based on the sell signals, and although these trades would not have resulted in losses, it was also challenging to make money on them.

How to Trade on Monday:



In the hourly time frame, GBP/USD has a good chance of resuming the global downtrend or at least seeing a significant correction. The British pound remains overbought, the dollar is undervalued, and the market is still much more inclined to sell the dollar than to buy it. So far, the pound only shows a weak bearish correction. It is too early to speak of a full-fledged downtrend. The much-anticipated Fed meeting will take place this week, and after that, conclusions can be made regarding the medium-term direction of the dollar's movement.

On Monday, the pair might resume declining, as it rose on Thursday almost without apparent reason. However, the market again shows that it is willing to buy the pound without any justification.

In the 5-minute time frame, you can currently trade around the levels of 1.2605-1.2633, 1.2684-1.2693, 1.2748, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3145-1.3167, 1.3225, 1.3272, 1.3310. On Monday, no significant events or reports are scheduled in the UK or the U.S., so there is a high likelihood of another flat movement and low volatility.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:



1) The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes for the signal to form (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more trades were opened around any level due to false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.

3) In a flat market, any currency pair can form multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.

4) Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and midway through the U.S. session. After this period, all trades must be closed manually.

5) In the hourly time frame, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.

6) If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.

7) After moving 20 pips in the intended direction, the Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What's on the Charts:



Support and Resistance price levels: targets for opening long or short positions. You can place Take Profit levels around them.

Red lines: channels or trend lines that depict the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3): encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the movement of a currency pair. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the prevailing movement.

For beginners, it's important to remember that not every trade will yield profit. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management is key to success in trading over the long term.Pentru mai multe detalii, va invitam sa vizitati stirea originala.